SpaceX has a growing commercial operation, developing and manufacturing spacecraft, providing launch services, and operating a commercial satellite-based internet service from its Starlink satellites.
As SpaceX is not publicly traded, the valuation of SpaceX is commonly debated. It has been reported that SpaceX has been working on a further agreement to enable employees to sell their shares at a $400 billion valuation. The firm was valued at $210 billion last summer, jumping In December 2024 to $350 billion after Elon’s team bought back $500 million in stock from employees. Therefore it has experienced significant valuation growth.
Analysis by the Wall Street Journal in 2025 noted that the company was on track to generate $16 billion of revenue for the year, driven by its launch services and Starlink operations. This gives the latest valuation a revenue multiple of 25x and an estimated EBITDA multiple of around 100x, reflecting investors perceived strong growth potential of the company.
An investment research firm recently produced a model looking at simulating expected SpaceX enterprise values in 2030 and 2040. This model looked at using simulations to show how future cash flow outcomes might unfold under thousands of different scenarios.
Various methodologies can be used in valuing a company, one of which being the discounted cashflow basis such as that used here. In smaller privately owned trading companies we typically see earnings based or asset based valuations being most appropriate, but the nature of the entity must be considered and particularly in early stage or high growth enterprises we are seeing forecast information being utilised to produce valuations based on future cashflows, or as a proxy, future adjusted and underlying EBITDA levels in an earnings based approach.
The research firm’s model works on the assumption that cash generated from Starlink loops into their reusable Starships which accelerates growth by increasing Starship departures and reducing the marginal payload cost. Once Starlink’s incremental rate of return dips as operations on Earth peak, the model then diverts all cash into the Mars project, establishing infrastructure and capturing economic value on the planet.
The 2030 valuation curve in the model gives a forecast base case outcome being a $2.5 trillion valuation for SpaceX, with a fairly narrow band for bear and bull scenarios, representing a six-fold increase on the current employee share sale valuation. As with all forecast information, but accentuated by the ambition of SpaceX and significant uncertainty over whether Starship can actually make mankind multiplanetary, the uncertainty increases the further into the future the model goes and the 2040 valuation looking 15 years into the future produces a much wider distribution of outcomes and hence a flatter curve. The model produces a base case 2040 valuation of $12.8 trillion – to put this into context, it equates to roughly the combined current market cap of the three largest companies on the planet (NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple). These simulated valuations are therefore consistent with the growth narrative and demand for shares at the heightened current multiples, but remains highly speculative and hypothetical.
In conclusion, the SpaceX share sale and investment research model both highlight an interesting perspective on company valuations of high growth businesses and emerging or specialist industries, with takeaways on perceived value that despite being applied here at the extreme end of the scale and in a hypothetical scenario, can be considered and applied in the thought process of company valuations.
Whilst we haven't been engaged on any interplanetary valuation work just yet, we have extensive experience in advising on company valuations for acquisitions, disposals, share transfers, insolvency situations, new share issues, company reorganisations, demergers, EOT's and matrimonial proceedings (including where court instructed).
Disclaimer: This article does not in any way constitute investment advice – we recommend that you seek specialist advice before entering into any investment. We have not verified the accuracy of any data or figures quoted.