Episode overview
Budget 2026 predictions: which taxes are ruled out, where John Healey could look instead, and what to do before Budget day.
A new Prime Minister, a new chancellor and very few leaks. In this episode of Summing Up, James Shipp talks to Michael Morter, Tax Director at Lovewell Blake, about what could change in the Budget. They cover the four taxes ruled out in the manifesto, why capital gains tax looks like the likeliest target, the phased changes to business asset disposal relief, the cost of employing people after the employers' National Insurance rise, inheritance tax on pensions, the council tax surcharge on homes over £2 million, and what to do before Budget day. Michael's rule is simple: if you were going to do something anyway, go ahead and do it. The episode ends with three quick fire questions on Making Tax Digital, landlords and the £100,000 cliff edge.
Episode summary
In this special pre-Budget edition of the podcast, James is joined by Michael to discuss the potential changes that could be announced by the UK's new Chancellor in the 2026 Budget. With businesses, investors and taxpayers all watching closely, the conversation explores the areas most likely to be targeted for reform and what these changes could mean for individuals and organisations across the UK.
The discussion covers possible adjustments to income tax, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and business taxation, while also examining the wider economic challenges facing the government. James and Michael consider the political and fiscal pressures influencing decision-making and share practical insights on how taxpayers can prepare ahead of any announcements. Whether you're a business owner, investor or simply looking to understand how the Budget could affect your finances, this episode provides a timely overview of the key issues to watch.
Key takeaways
The 2026 Budget is expected to be shaped by the government's need to balance public finances while encouraging economic growth.
Tax changes remain a possibility, with areas such as income tax thresholds, capital gains tax, inheritance tax and pension tax relief likely to remain under scrutiny.
Business owners should pay close attention to any announcements affecting corporation tax, business investment incentives and reliefs available to SMEs.
Individuals with significant investments or assets may benefit from reviewing their financial plans before any potential tax reforms are introduced.
Inheritance tax continues to be an area of speculation, making estate planning an important consideration for families looking to preserve wealth.
The wider economic environment, including inflation, borrowing costs and government spending commitments, will influence the Chancellor's decisions.
Political priorities are likely to play a significant role in determining which measures are announced and how quickly they are implemented.
Acting before the Budget based solely on rumours can be risky, but understanding potential changes can help individuals and businesses prepare contingency plans.
Regular reviews of tax and financial planning strategies can help ensure opportunities and risks are identified early.
Professional advice is particularly valuable during periods of uncertainty, helping taxpayers respond effectively once official announcements are made.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction: a new chancellor and few leaks
02:28 The taxes Andy Burnham has ruled out
04:06 Capital gains tax: the likely target
05:58 Scaling up and business asset disposal relief
07:06 Employers' National Insurance and the cost of employing people
08:56 Pensions, farms and the high value property charge
12:44 Company cars and electric vehicles
13:24 Top tips before the Budget
16:18 Pension lump sums and a property tax
18:06 The chancellor's rabbit out of the hat
19:11 Budget breakfasts in Norwich and Bury St Edmunds
20:31 Quick fire questions: MTD, landlords and the £100k cliff edge
Guest bio
Michael Morter is a tax director at Lovewell Blake, where inheritance tax planning and compliance is a large part of his role. He advises individuals and families on their exposure to inheritance tax and the options for reducing it, including lifetime gifting, trusts and the recent changes to reliefs for agricultural and business property. This episode is his first appearance on Summing Up and the start of a short series with James Shipp covering gifting, pensions and trusts.
Once pensions are added to your estate, many more families will have inheritance tax to pay. Our tax team can help you understand your exposure and the options for reducing it, from lifetime gifts to trusts.